2020年CIO角色变化的10大预测(上)

标签:CIO职场海外连线调查研究

访客:23099  发表于:2012-05-30 16:55:29

我们试图对2020年CIO在企业中扮演的角色进行预测,然而,我们十分清楚到那时科技的变化可谓沧海桑田,这种预测明显不怎么实际。十年前,谁又会想到今天的CIO们会处理诸如云计算安全和虚拟化的问题呢?为了了解2020年CIO们的角色会有怎样的变化,我们请行业先锋,分析家和CIO自己谈谈他们对2020的CIO扮演什么样角色的看法。一下就是他们的一些观点:

1. 微软帝国的终结

微软帝国不再一家独大的现象也许是2020年最大的变化。用户访问管理公司Okta的CEO,McKinnon 认为,iOS和Android系统的崛起动摇了微软的霸主地位,但是还是会有一些公司使用 Windows 服务器,这些公司有的获得更好的服务,有的则变得更加糟糕。不过,移动时代的革命或许真的会终结微软帝国。“到2020年,员工,客户和合作伙伴需要并渴望选择多种移动设备使用应用程序,如果CIO没有在基础建设上为此做好准备,我们就会面临一系列严重的安全漏洞问题!”

2. IT部门的虚拟化

企业现在正向云计算大规模转移,但是大多数的员工还是能知道谁在IT部门工作,IT部门在公司的什么位置,甚至谁是IT部门的老大。但是到2020年,IT部门就会从向终端用户提供支持的角色转变到向提供用户IT服务的引路人的转变。换句话来说,IT部门本身就融入到云计算中。IT部门也从云计算服务的管理部门转变成云服务部门

Windows桌面管理软件的生产商 RES 软件公司的CTO,Bob Janssen认为,今天的终端用户是最后一批知道IT部门是如何运作的人,到2020年没有员工会知道IT部门是如何运作的。但是他们会通过IT部门与将近150名同事紧密联系,模拟化成长,数字化学习。

3. 云计算会催生高度活跃的商务合作

目前,高分辨率的视频会议技术已经取得实质性进步,但是大多数的会议还是要在会场内进行。到2020年,Mckinnon认为,云端的相互合作将会取代防火墙后的协作模式,这就意味着CIO不得不了解员工要如何使用云计算服务。“这就导致CIO需要具备战略业务领导能力,并且寻求与事务合作伙伴的最佳写作方式。这还意味着,CIO将会不得不去处理将信息从防火墙的保护中转移到云端所直接面临的安全问题。”

4. IT部门将不在需要大量员工,特别是在安全方面

到2020年,CIO的主要工作将不再是管理大量的员工。虽然这种假设看起来还很遥远,但是事实是计算机信息处理技术变得越来越自动,正常的运转不再过分依靠人工干预。 Secure Experts 公司CEO,Darnell Washington 认为,维护安全,用户管理甚至紧急问题的应急处理都由计算机人工智能控制。“第一时间应急措施和事故反应信息的收集都会首先采用无人系统,机器人,侦察机或是其它具备音频和视频能力的无人航空工具系统。”

5.最终用户在部门团队中更加独立

Janssen还认为,最终用户将不再以团队合作的形式工作。这对CIO来说将会是最严峻的改变,因为在这之前CIO都是与团队召开会议进行协商并制定战略。取而代之的是,IT部门将会变成个人的服务供应者,只要保证他们的应用程序,软件和系统正常运作。“纯正的”数字用户可能拥有15000位重要的商业联系(其中一些并不是个人)作为技术资源。到2020年高度联系的社交平台的发展促使员工与“线上朋友”要比同事更加熟悉。所以2020年的CIO要与Facebook竞争。“‘像Facebook’一样的网络平台在团队中提供高效的协作方式“。

10 Predictions for What the CIO Role Will Look Like in 2020

By John Brandon

FRAMINGHAM (05/03/2012) - At the same time, we also know that technology will change dramatically. Who could have predicted even 10 years ago that the CIO would have to deal with complications such as cloud security and virtualization? To find out how the role will change in eight years, we tapped industry leaders, analysts and CIOs themselves to discover what the challenges of 2020 for the CIO will be like. Here's what we found out.


1. Microsoft's reign may end.

Perhaps one of the most dramatic changes in 2020 could be a lesser role for Microsoft. Todd McKinnon, CEO of Okta, an identity access management company, says the rise of iOS and Android have put a dent in Microsoft's dominance, but many companies have stuck with Windows Server for better or worse. However, mobile will likely end a Microsoft hegemony.
"In 2020, employees, customers and partners will demand—and expect—access to apps from more than one heterogeneous device," he says. "If the CIO has not built an infrastructure to support this, we're going to see a lot more, and likely very serious, security breaches by 2020."

2. The IT department won't be physical.

There's a dramatic shift to the cloud, but most of us can still tell you who works in IT, where the department is located and who is in charge. By 2020, there will be a shift from an IT department for end users to a "follow me" IT service provider mentality. In other words, IT itself will move to the cloud. The concept will shift from a department that manages cloud services to a cloud service itself.

Bob Janssen, CTO of RES Software, a company that makes Windows desktop management software, says the end-users of today are the last generation of corporate workers who can tell how and where IT is operating. The next generation won't even know. Those workers will have ties with about 150 other workers (on average); they grew up analog and learned digital.
3. Hyper-kinetic business collaboration will occur in the cloud.

High-definition videoconferencing has certainly made progress, but most meetings still take place in person. By 2020, McKinnon says, collaboration in the cloud will replace collaboration behind a firewall. This means the CIO will have to address how employees use cloud services. "As a result, the position of the CIO will evolve into one that emphasizes strategic business leadership—looking at where and how to best collaborate with business partners," he says. "This also means that the CIO will have had to address head-on the issue of moving information from behind the firewall in terms of security."
4. CIOs will managing fewer humans, especially for security.

By 2020, the role of CIO will shift away from one that is mostly about managing humans in a large workforce. While that may seem too far-future for some, the reality is that computing is becoming much more autonomous, requiring less dependence on human intervention for systems to run correctly. Darnell Washington, CEO of SecureExperts, says building security, identity management and even emergency response will be controlled by computer artificial intelligence (AI). "First response and collection of situational awareness will be initially obtained by unmanned systems, robots, surveillance drones, and other unmanned aerial vehicle systems that contain audio and video capabilities," he says.
5. End-users will not be in departmental groups.

Janssen also says end-users will no longer work in groups. That shift will be one of the most critical changes for CIOs, who often meet with teams to collaborate and strategize. Instead, IT will become a service provider to individuals, making sure their gadgets, software and systems work. He says "native" digital users might have as many as 15,000 important business relationships (many of them not in person) that can serve as technical resources. A gap will develop by 2020 where the hyper-connected social platforms mean workers are much more acquainted with friends than co-workers. So the CIO of 2020 will be required to compete with the Facebook of tomorrow. "Facebook-like enterprise networks will serve as a far more effective means of collaborating among teams," he says.

评论(4)

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    1. 海外连线 呵呵~@范云佳 ,您的观点真是给我很大的启发,原来一起额理论和预测都是经不起实践的检验。如果现在穿越到2020年,指不定有几项技术会存留成为企业发展的关键~对,等着瞧吧~

      回复[0] 2012/05/30 17:48

    1. 范云佳 2020年也是太远了,我不喜欢说不再需要大量IT员工。从财务人事和采购的例子来看,随着部门发展,职能会越来越细化,需要的越来越是高端和专业的员工。任何一个部门都不会自贬身价,说一切都可以自动化和外包,除了CIO谁都不需要了。至于微软的终结,我倒是很愿意看到这一天,希望能早点看到,但是目前苹果和谷歌在企业领域的发展实在太慢太少,革命的痕迹还没见到。云计算和虚拟化只是IT名词,用户不关心这些,将来你不再会提到这些,只会告诉用户,随时随地可以得到你的文件和数据。至于线上合作和Facebook,等着瞧吧

      回复[0] 2012/05/30 17:16

    1. 海外连线 您是怎么看待CIO在未来的变化?@行行摄摄中 @殷勇 @张利华 @邹震 @王立新 @姜稳

      回复[0] 2012/05/30 17:00

    1. 海外连线 IT部门渐渐与云计算融合这个是一个不可避免的潮流~

      回复[0] 2012/05/30 16:57

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