微软帝国不再一家独大的现象也许是2020年最大的变化。用户访问管理公司Okta的CEO，McKinnon 认为，iOS和Android系统的崛起动摇了微软的霸主地位，但是还是会有一些公司使用 Windows 服务器，这些公司有的获得更好的服务，有的则变得更加糟糕。不过，移动时代的革命或许真的会终结微软帝国。“到2020年，员工，客户和合作伙伴需要并渴望选择多种移动设备使用应用程序，如果CIO没有在基础建设上为此做好准备，我们就会面临一系列严重的安全漏洞问题！”
Windows桌面管理软件的生产商 RES 软件公司的CTO，Bob Janssen认为，今天的终端用户是最后一批知道IT部门是如何运作的人，到2020年没有员工会知道IT部门是如何运作的。但是他们会通过IT部门与将近150名同事紧密联系，模拟化成长，数字化学习。
到2020年，CIO的主要工作将不再是管理大量的员工。虽然这种假设看起来还很遥远，但是事实是计算机信息处理技术变得越来越自动，正常的运转不再过分依靠人工干预。 Secure Experts 公司CEO，Darnell Washington 认为，维护安全，用户管理甚至紧急问题的应急处理都由计算机人工智能控制。“第一时间应急措施和事故反应信息的收集都会首先采用无人系统，机器人，侦察机或是其它具备音频和视频能力的无人航空工具系统。”
By John Brandon
1. Microsoft's reign may end.
Perhaps one of the most dramatic changes in 2020 could be a lesser role for Microsoft. Todd McKinnon, CEO of Okta, an identity access management company, says the rise of iOS and Android have put a dent in Microsoft's dominance, but many companies have stuck with Windows Server for better or worse. However, mobile will likely end a Microsoft hegemony.
"In 2020, employees, customers and partners will demandand expectaccess to apps from more than one heterogeneous device," he says. "If the CIO has not built an infrastructure to support this, we're going to see a lot more, and likely very serious, security breaches by 2020."
2. The IT department won't be physical.
There's a dramatic shift to the cloud, but most of us can still tell you who works in IT, where the department is located and who is in charge. By 2020, there will be a shift from an IT department for end users to a "follow me" IT service provider mentality. In other words, IT itself will move to the cloud. The concept will shift from a department that manages cloud services to a cloud service itself.
Bob Janssen, CTO of RES Software, a company that makes Windows desktop management software, says the end-users of today are the last generation of corporate workers who can tell how and where IT is operating. The next generation won't even know. Those workers will have ties with about 150 other workers (on average); they grew up analog and learned digital.
3. Hyper-kinetic business collaboration will occur in the cloud.
High-definition videoconferencing has certainly made progress, but most meetings still take place in person. By 2020, McKinnon says, collaboration in the cloud will replace collaboration behind a firewall. This means the CIO will have to address how employees use cloud services. "As a result, the position of the CIO will evolve into one that emphasizes strategic business leadershipÂlooking at where and how to best collaborate with business partners," he says. "This also means that the CIO will have had to address head-on the issue of moving information from behind the firewall in terms of security."
4. CIOs will managing fewer humans, especially for security.
By 2020, the role of CIO will shift away from one that is mostly about managing humans in a large workforce. While that may seem too far-future for some, the reality is that computing is becoming much more autonomous, requiring less dependence on human intervention for systems to run correctly. Darnell Washington, CEO of SecureExperts, says building security, identity management and even emergency response will be controlled by computer artificial intelligence (AI). "First response and collection of situational awareness will be initially obtained by unmanned systems, robots, surveillance drones, and other unmanned aerial vehicle systems that contain audio and video capabilities," he says.
5. End-users will not be in departmental groups.
Janssen also says end-users will no longer work in groups. That shift will be one of the most critical changes for CIOs, who often meet with teams to collaborate and strategize. Instead, IT will become a service provider to individuals, making sure their gadgets, software and systems work. He says "native" digital users might have as many as 15,000 important business relationships (many of them not in person) that can serve as technical resources. A gap will develop by 2020 where the hyper-connected social platforms mean workers are much more acquainted with friends than co-workers. So the CIO of 2020 will be required to compete with the Facebook of tomorrow. "Facebook-like enterprise networks will serve as a far more effective means of collaborating among teams," he says.