令人振奋的科技时代即将来临

标签:全球CIO博客

访客:32738  发表于:2012-05-09 13:45:18

 

我想跟大家探讨一下我的一个想法。那就是:IT行业60年历史上最令人振奋的时代就要到来了。我的根据如下:我们之前预计IT繁荣的时代会出现在1998年至2000年,可是事后我们知道那与预期不符。

零售商和CIO们从科技公司买入了太多没有用的东西,而且这些东西根本就不是他们所想的可以阻挡“千年虫”的魔力子弹。IT执行管理上的失败,2001年后半期的6个月的不景气,9/11事件还有安然公司在3年的科技衰退期混乱不堪,我们担忧地称这个时期为“多快好省”的时代。

另外,CIO们失去了CEOCFO们的信任。在他们可能在购买任何新东西之前,CEOCIO们卖掉大量科技零售商的股票,这些股票还是在.com和千年虫时代购买的。

    距离2007年的不景气的已经过去了18个月。尽管所有人都经历过困难时期,可是消费者/雇员/富翁/合作伙伴在IT领域损失得只多不少。然而,CIO们从2001年困难时期得到了教训。这次,很多CIO开始从2008年一月份就开始削减IT的开支,保持科技的支出份额与公司IT的支出份额一致,仅保持在销售业务额的1%。通过采取这种措施,CIO们重新赢得了CEO们的信任,而且,他们谨慎地将科技库存量缩减到很小的规模。

     我最近在华尔街出席了CNBC的 抱怨会。在准备负面话题的时候,我当面问询了25CIO一个同样的问题:“假如说你的CEO想要计划在萧条结束后投资管理科技产品或是砍掉科技产品,满分十分,你会给你的CEO把科技投资作为关键投资领域打几分?”

     结果平均得分为8.5分。

     所以把由IT人才能解决的大量消费者需求,低库存率和CEO把科技作为关键投资领域的强力支持综合在一起,我相信综合起来科技令人兴奋的时代就要到来了。

     借用《经济周刊》主编Mike Mandel的话,我将即将到来的时代称为:合理的繁荣时代。

     你是如何看待我的这一看法的呢?让我们一起来探讨一下吧。

    原文如下:

    

     Most Exciting Era in Tech About to Dawn
 
    I have a theory I would like to share with you. Here it is: the most exciting era ever in the 60 year history of IT is just about to arrive. My rationale: we thought that era was in 1998 - 2000 but we know in hindsight what happened there. Vendors sold and CIOs bought too much stuff that didn't work from start up companies that failed or from established companies that oversold ERP as the magic bullet for Y2K. That failure from IT exec management, coupled with a six month recession in late 2001, 9/11 and the Enron mess ushered in a three year tech recession we affectionately called the "do more with less" era. Plus, CIOs lost the trust of CEOs and CFOs. And those CEOs made CIOs work off a huge stock of tech inventories purchased in the dot com/Y2K era before they could buy any more new stuff.

    Fast forward to the recession of 2007 now in its' 18th month. Though hard times for all, customers/employees/millenials/partners have demanded more, not less, from IT. And, CIOs learned a lesson from the 01 recession. This time around many started to prune IT budgets in January 2008 keeping tech spending levels in line with the firm's IT as a percent of sales ratio. Doing so, they earned back the trust of the CEO. And, they prudently managed down their tech inventories to very low levels.

    I appeared recently on CNBC Squawk on the Street. In prep for the gig, I interviewed 25 CIOs asking them this question "on a scale of where one says your ceo plans to look at tech investment as a cost to be managed or cut when the recession ends, to 10 where the CEO plans to look to tech investment as a key investment area when the recession ends", where does your CEO sit.

    The average answer was 8.5.

   So you put together significant customer demand for solutions created by IT, low inventory levels, strong CEO backing of tech as a key investment area and I believe that all adds up to ushering in the most exciting era ever in tech.

    Stealing a phrase from Mike Mandel, chief economist for Business Week, I am calling this coming era, the Era of Rational Exuberance.

    What's your take on my thoughts? Let's get some thoughts going.

 

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